Malaysia’s Economy at Risk with Growing Consumer Debt

Malaysia’s consumer debt is at 76.6 per cent of its GDP and some economists believe that the growing consumer credit could rock the country’s economy.

Malaysia’s consumer debt is at 76.6 per cent of its GDP and some economists believe that the growing consumer credit could rock the country’s economy.

Malaysia’s consumer debt is at 76.6 per cent of its GDP and some economists believe that the growing consumer credit — where each ringgit of growth nearly matches an extra ringgit of consumer debt — could rock the country’s economy, the Financial Times (FT) reported today.

The country’s household debt ratio is the highest in the region, the influential daily reported, citing Johanna Chua, an economist at Citigroup, who believed this makes the Southeast Asia’s third largest economy vulnerable, especially as lower-income households bear a greater share of the overall debt.

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IMF Scales Back Southeast Asia Growth Forecast

The International Monetary Fund has cut its forecast on the economic growth of five nations in Southeast Asia to better reflect faltering growth in the global economy. Monday’s assessment, released in a report by the IMF, was the latest development institution to announce an assessment after the World Bank cut its economic growth forecast for next year.

The IMF cut the economic growth forecast for Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam, which together are known as the Asean 5, to expand 6.1 percent in 2013, slightly lower that its earlier forecast of 6.2 percent. It cut the global economic outlook for growth to 3.9 percent next year, from its previous forecast of 4.1 percent.

Still, the IMF, which loaned billions of dollars to Thailand and Indonesia during the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis with strict conditions, maintained the growth forecast for the year at 5.4 percent, unchanged from its forecast three months ago.

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Brewer ThaiBev outlines bid for stake in two breweries

Asia’s fast growing beer market is facing a shake up after ThaiBev, Thailand’s biggest brewer, offered to buy stakes in two breweries.

Overseas-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC) said it had been approached for its stakes in the two companies.

The bid is for an 18.2% stake in Fraser and Neave (F&N), and 7.9% of Tiger Beer maker Asia Pacific Breweries.

Heineken jointly controls Asia Pacific Breweries with F&N and has said it will act to safeguard its interests.

Threat to rivals?

ThaiBev is owned by Thai billionaire Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi, who listed the company in Singapore in 2006.

It operates distilleries in Thailand, Scotland and China, as well as breweries and soft drink facilities in Thailand.

The two stakes ThaiBev is seeking to buy are valued at about $2.3bn (£1.5bn), based on Tuesday’s closing share prices.

The move could be worrying for rivals such as Heineken and Kirin, who also own various shareholdings in F&N and Asia Pacific Breweries.

Heineken holds a 42% stake in Asia Pacific Breweries, while F&N owns 40%. Heineken also owns a direct 9.5% stake in Asia Pacific Breweries.

Japan’s Kirin is the second-largest shareholder in F&N with 15%.

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Giant Japan pension fund to dip toe in emerging markets

Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund, the world’s biggest public pension fund, said on Monday it had selected six asset managers to make its first investments in emerging markets as it tries to boost returns in the face of rising payout obligations.

Known as GPIF, the pension fund, whose 108.1 trillion yen ($1.35 trillion) in total assets nearly matches the size of the Spanish economy, has become a net seller of its assets in recent years as it tries to cope with Japan’s rapidly aging population.

Market analysts expected the investment in emerging market equities to start at around several hundred billion yen, too small to have a big impact on overall returns, but said the move was an important step to diversify the fund’s portfolio.

The pension fund, which issued a tender for active and passive managers in October 2010, selected Invesco (IVZ.N), Nomura Asset Management, Nomura Funds Research and Technologies, Mizuho Asset Management, Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management and Lazard Asset Management (LAZ.N). It said there were no suitable managers for passive investments.

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China HSBC PMI hits seven-month low of 48.2 in June

China’s factory activity shrank in June at the fastest pace in seven months as new export orders tumbled to depths last seen in March 2009, a private sector survey showed, underlining the risk of a lurch lower for the Chinese economy.

The HSBC Purchasing Managers‘ Index (PMI) fell to 48.2 after seasonal adjustments, its lowest since November 2011, and little changed from a flash, or preliminary, estimate of 48.1. The final reading in May was 48.4.

June was the eighth straight month of a reading below 50, the threshold dividing expansion from contraction in the survey methodology.

China’s official PMI, released on Sunday, also fell to a seven-month low in June. However, the official PMI was 50.2, indicating the sector was still expanding.

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China, Singapore Exempted From U.S. Iran Oil Sanctions

The U.S. said China and Singapore have “significantly reduced” their purchases of Iranian oil, earning exemptions from U.S. financial sanctions that otherwise would have been imposed yesterday.

China was the biggest importer of Iranian crude last year, and Singapore is Asia’s oil trading and refining hub. The U.S. granted renewable, 180-day exemptions on March 20 to Japan and 10 European Union nations. India, South Korea, Turkey, South Africa, Malaysia, Sri Lanka and Taiwan won exemptions June 11.

An EU ban on Iranian oil imports goes into effect July 1. The EU collectively was the second-largest buyer of Iranian oil in the first half of 2011. As a nation, Japan ranked second behind China, according to the U.S. Energy Department.

Clinton said reduced oil exports are costing Iran almost $8 billion a quarter in lost revenue. That estimate is based on a drop in crude exports to 1.5 million barrels a day from 2.5 million a day in 2011 as reported by the International Energy Agency in Paris, she said.

“Secretary Clinton has assured me that at this time China has met the significant reduction standard required by the law and recent precedent to qualify for an exemption from sanctions,” said Democratic Senator Robert Menendez of New Jersey, who sponsored the legislation with Republican Senator Mark Kirk of Illinois.

Mark Wallace, chief executive officer of United Against Nuclear Iran, a New York-based advocacy group, said in an e-mail that the world oil supply presents a “unique opportunity” for nations to stop all Iranian oil purchases.

Republican Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of Florida, who heads the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said in an e- mailed statement that the administration granted a “free pass” to China, which she called “Iran’s biggest enabler.”

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How Asia Will Fare if Europe Cracks

BY ALEX FRANGOS

As the Euro Zone Flirts With Disaster, Asian Economies Stand at Varying Degrees of Preparedness

HONG KONG—Greek elections may have assuaged fears of a European financial contagion spreading to Asia, at least for the moment. But as troubles brew in Spain, where borrowing costs shot up again Tuesday, and as Greece faces more painful cuts to meet bailout targets by September, many wonder who in Asia is most exposed should Europe’s economy and financial system finally crack.

Lessons from the 2008 financial crisis show that while all of Asia tends to get hit when the world economy shudders, the severity differs depending on which countries have the biggest trade and financial linkages to the rest …

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Nikkei ends at 5-week high, softer yen supports

By Dominic Lau TOKYO, June 21 (Reuters) – Japan’s Nikkei average broke above 8,800 for the first time in five weeks on Thursday, as sentiment was buoyed by a softer yen after the U.S. Federal Reserve held back from more aggressive stimulus steps to prop up the economy.

The benchmark Nikkei hit its highest closing level since May
17 and has recovered 7 percent from a six-month low on June 4.

Shrugging off a survey showing China’s vast manufacturing sector slowing for the eighth straight month, the Nikkei rose 0.8 percent to 8,824.07, driven by exporters, such as Honda Motor Co Ltd, up 3.5 percent, and Canon Inc, adding 1.4 percent. The Fed disappointed some investors by delivering only a limited expansion of monetary stimulus on Wednesday. It extended its “Operation Twist” beyond its original June expiration to the end of the year to boost the flagging U.S. recovery. It also cut its GDP growth estimates for the year.

“The fact they eased at all is a plus for the U.S. economy, while holding off on QE3 is good for the Japanese market as it didn’t strengthen the yen,” said Hideyuki Ishiguro, assistant manager of investment strategy at Okasan Securities.

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Evergrande stock tumbles on fraud accusation

By Chris Oliver, MarketWatch

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — Evergrande Real Estate Group Ltd. was drawn into the controversy over questionable accounting practices at listed Chinese companies Thursday, as its board denied allegations of financial impropriety leveled by the Los Angeles–based stock-commentary website Citron Research.

Evergrande
Signing ceremony for the development projects of Chongjiang Jiangjin Evergrande Splendor International Skiing Health Resort and Chongqing Yucai Middle School n January 2012.

The Hong Kong–listed shares of Evergrande HK:3333 -11.38%  EGRNF -6.14% ended down 11.4% at 3.97 Hong Kong dollars (51 U.S. cents), shedding 51 Hong Kong cents from its previous session’s close, and paring an earlier, steeper drop of as much as 88 Hong Kong cents.

Citron said in summary research posted on its website that it had concluded that Guangzhou-based Evergrande is “essentially an insolvent company that has consistently presented fraudulent information to the investing public.”

China Manufacturing Slump May Match That Of 2008 Crisis

By Bloomberg News - Jun 21, 2012

A worker sews shirts at a factory in Shenzhen, Guangdong province, China.

China’s manufacturing may shrink for an eighth month in June, matching the streak during the global financial crisis in a signal the government’s stimulus has yet to reverse the economy’s slowdown.

The preliminary reading was 48.1 for a purchasing managers’ index today from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics. Above-50 readings indicate expansion. The lowest crisis level was 40.9 in November 2008, when industrial production increased 5.4 percent from a year earlier, compared with a gain of 9.6 percent last month.

Today’s report contrasts with comments by officials expressing confidence growth will rebound, with President Hu Jintaosaying in remarks published June 17 that China has taken “targeted measures” to boost domestic demand. Asian stocks fell and the yuan weakened for a second day against the dollar.

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