The dreaded number “four” in Chinese Culture may be involved in predicting China’s economic cycle
Robert Silk from WSJ: The number “four” is unlucky in China. It sounds a little bit like “death,” and nobody wants it in their phone number.
But one economist at Peking University, one of the country’s top academic institutions, is convinced traditional numerology has got it wrong.
“What are the boom years in the Chinese economy?” asked Cai Hongbin at a Thursday morning press conference. “Eighty-three and ’84, ’93 and ’94, 2003 and 2004.”
Posted by Admin on May 23, 2013
Singapore’s economy took an unexpected turn higher in the first quarter of the year.
Martin Vaughan from WSJ: Singapore’s economy took an unexpected turn higher in the first quarter of the year as a rally in financial markets buoyed the city-state’s banking sector.
Gross domestic product expanded 1.8% in the first quarter on a seasonally adjusted, annualized basis, an improvement from preliminary data that had indicated a 1.4% decline, the government said Thursday. Officials said they expect growth to pick up modestly for the remainder of the year on stronger external demand, but kept their full-year growth forecast at 1.0%-3.0%.
Posted by Admin on May 23, 2013
Indonesia’s Financial Services Authority plans to publish scorecards rating companies on the quality of their corporate governance as it begins supervising capital markets in Southeast Asia’s biggest economy.
The agency plans to rate the nation’s 50 biggest listed companies this year, said Muliaman Hadad, chairman of the newly minted regulator known by its Indonesian acronym of OJK. How companies treat minority shareholders and the roles played by board directors are among the criteria, he said in an interview in Jakarta on Jan. 15. OJK will consolidate supervision of capital markets, banks and non-bank financial institutions.
Hadad, a former central bank deputy governor, wants companies to improve practices to lure investors and broaden the pool of capital to fund growth. Indonesia’s economic recovery since the Asian financial crisis in 1997-1998, when the nation had to seek an International Monetary Fund bailout, has prompted Fitch Ratings and Moody’s Investors Service to raise their sovereign debt scores to investment grade.
Posted by cbasdeo09 on January 24, 2013
The faith of many pious believers in the China growth story has been shaken a little lately as the Asian economic powerhouse shows signs of a slowdown. China’s GDP slowed to 7.4 per cent in the first three quarters of 2012 from a dazzling high of 9.6 per cent last year.
The price of iron ore — Australia’ most important export earner — went on a wild roller-coaster ride on the back of China’s slowdown concerns, before sanity returned to the market.
After three decades of double-digit growths even during the winter of the global financial crisis, many people have grown accustomed to the China speed. However, the world must brace itself for a slower China, a country that is in search of a new model of growth.
This new model of growth will be discussed at Golden Networking‘s China Leaders Forum 2012, “Political and Economic Challenges for Xi Jinping, China’s President-in-waiting”, conference that will examine the political and economic challenges facing China nowadays and the long-term opportunities that will be created in the world’s largest economy by 2016.
Posted by Admin on October 18, 2012
Stocks edged mostly higher as sales of existing homes in the U.S. rose more than expected and Japan’s central bank expanded a bond-buying program meant to boost its economy.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 14 points, or 0.1%, to 13579 in midmorning trading.
The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index added one point, or 0.1%, to 1459. Consumer-discretionary and materials shares in the index advanced while the energy sector lagged behind. The Nasdaq Composite index fell four points, or 0.1%, to 3174.
“We’re seeing that there are some triggers in the real economy that people can hang their hats on,” said Diane Jaffee, senior portfolio manager at TCW Group. “Home sales are one of them.”
Sales of previously occupied homes in August climbed 7.8% from a month earlier, topping economists’ expectations, according to a National Association of Realtors report.
Other readings on the housing market were mixed. August housing starts rose less than economists expected in August, the Commerce Department reported. Construction of single-family homes rose to the highest level in more than two years, while apartments saw a decline. Building permits fell less than economists had projected.
The Bank of Japan eased its monetary policy further by increasing the size of its asset-purchase program to 80 trillion yen ($1.01 trillion) from Y70 trillion, and by extending the program’s deadline by six months, to the end of 2013.
Posted by byu2012 on September 22, 2012
Asian markets fell Thursday, a day before Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s much-anticipated Friday speech at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and as weakness in resources pushed Australia to a two-week low.
“What seems to be the preferred trade at the moment is taking off the positions that people don’t need to have ahead of the announcements over the weekend,” said Tahnoon Pasha, chief executive officer for Asia equities and fixed income at Aviva Investors, which manages just under $6 billion out of its Singapore office.
Australia’s S&P ASX 200 fell 0.9% to 4315.7 as the price of iron ore continued to drop, falling 4.7% overnight to its lowest price since November 2009. There was weakness in other metals as well, which translated into poor performances by mining stocks. Rio Tinto was down 3.8% and BHP Billiton BLT.LN -3.26% lost 2.4%.
News that Fortescue Metals Group chairman Andrew Forrest had bought some of the company’s stock this week did not stop its share price falling 1.6%. Atlas Iron slid 5.5%.
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.2% to 19552.91 on renewed concerns over the Chinese economy, while local property developers were hit by fears the government could intervene to cool the property market. Cheung Kong lost 2.7% and Henderson Land Development slipped 3.4%.
Posted by byu2012 on August 31, 2012
India’s economic slowdown is likely to be confirmed on Friday when GDP growth figures for the quarter ended in June are released and, by most estimates, should fall in line with the 5.3 per cent from the previous quarter.
The fact that one of the twin engines of Indian growth, investment, blew out sometime last year, is widely acknowledged – but the other engine, consumption, has remained relatively steady. A report released on Wednesday confirms what many have long said: as urban India’s spending habits have been hit by the global financial crisis, rural India’s has picked up the slack, having remained fairly disconnected from the global economy.
Between the fiscal year ending in March 2010 and the year ending in March 2012 – for the first time since economic liberalisation in 1991 – consumption in India’s villages grew faster than in its cities, according to a report by Crisil, the Indian subsidiary of Standard & Poor’s.
Rural India spent $67.4bn more over that period, compared to $53.8bn for urban India.
Posted by byu2012 on August 30, 2012
IT IS South-East Asia’s fastest-growing vehicle market, but investors, analysts and especially carmakers were awaiting Indonesia’s July sales figures with trepidation. Spooked by fears of a credit bubble in a booming economy, on June 15th the government had introduced a rule requiring buyers to fork out a minimum down-payment of 30% when borrowing from banks to buy new cars. Loans account for 70% of all new-car purchases, and it was hoped that this would dampen demand.
In the end, however, spendthrift consumers defied the government. Relieved car bosses saw July’s sales rise by 0.8% from June’s figure, setting a monthly record of 102,512 cars. Indonesia could be back on track to breach the 1m barrier this year, compared with 900,000 in 2011. Motorcycle sales—8m last year—also continue to resist gravity, or at least the government. Bikers now have to make down-payments of 25%, yet sales for July still hit a new high of 579,077, up from 541,918 in June.
July’s strong figures may yet prove anomalous. There is usually a bounce in consumer spending when Indonesia’s Muslim majority celebrates the Ramadan fasting period: cars and motorbikes are in particular demand as people travel long distances to visit their families. The market could decelerate now Ramadan is over.
Posted by byu2012 on August 30, 2012
(Reuters) – China’s policy chiefs have about two weeks left to decide about giving the economy a proper stimulative prod, or risk parading a new Communist Party leadership to the world just as growth falls below target for the first time in nearly four years.
Factory activity is already at a nine-month low, according to the latest manufacturing sector survey from HSBC, signaling that the official August numbers for industrial production and trade published in a fortnight will foreshadow third quarter economic growth falling below the government’s 7.5 percent goal.
That is a deeply unappealing prospect for the Party’s top brass as GDP data is likely to be unveiled at roughly the same time as the new leadership in a once-a-decade power transition.
The only real option to deliver a growth spurt in the narrow time window open to policymakers is a boost to infrastructure spending. Indeed, verbal intervention may be the only answer.
“They are sending out the message that they want to stimulate the economy, but in reality that is not going to happen,” influential independent China’s economist, Andy Xie, told Reuters. “About the only tool left to them now is propaganda.”
Posted by byu2012 on August 27, 2012
Asian markets ended mostly lower as gloom from China’s economy offset hope for moves by central banks to bolster the global economy.
A fresh set of poor economic data from China damped sentiment in the region. Profits at China’s major industrial enterprises dropped 5.4% in July from a year earlier, while HSBC downgraded its 2012 forecast for Chinese growth to 8% from 8.4%.
Stocks in the mainland were the most affected. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.7% to 2055.71, its lowest closing level since February 2009.
“Investors were overly optimistic that the economy would pick up during the third quarter,” said Zeng Xiaozhao, an analyst at Everbright Securities.
The poor performance of stocks in mainland China had an impact in Hong Kong, where the Hang Seng Index fell 0.4% to 19798.67.
Posted by byu2012 on August 27, 2012