Urbanization Won’t Save The Chinese Economy

china-construction-9In nearly every public speech since the leadership handover, Li Keqiang, who will take over as premier in March, has spoke about the importance of urbanization as a new growth engine.

Societe Generale’s Wei Yao however writes that the impact of urbanization has been “misunderstood and overstated by the market”.

For one, Yao writes that the impact of urbanization on China‘s productivity growth is decreasing, just like the the direction of demographics on labor force growth.

“For an emerging economy to catch up, moving farmers to manufacturing plants is a key source of productivity gain in the early stage. China’s experience in the past three decades was a typical example.

The 10-year average growth rate of China‘s urban population growth was 4.8% in the 1980s, 4.2% in the 1990s and 3.8% in the 2000s. The impact of this rapid urbanization on total factor productivity (TFP) was particularly pronounced. We estimate that this source accounted for about 30% of the impressive TFP growth.

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CAD, fiscal deficit two main problems of Indian economy: Chidambaram

1358854379-9532According to Business Standard’s, Indivjal Dhasmana, Finance Minister P Chidambaram has described the current account deficit (CAD) and fiscal deficit ( FD) as the two main problems faced by India, even as he wooed European investors to have a confidence in the India growth story.

At Frankfurt yesterday, Chidambaram, however, asserted that under no circumstances he would allow the Centre’s fiscal deficit to breach the revised His assurance on fiscal deficit front came a day before the RBI today cautioned against rising gap between the government’s expenditure and receipts.

The centre bank said large fiscal deficits will accentuate the CAD risk, further crowd out private investment and stunt growth impulses.target of 5.3% of GDP for the current financial year.

The Centre’s fiscal deficit was projected at 5.1% of GDP for 2012-13, but it was revised mid-way to 5.3%. Till November, fiscal deficit covered 80% of budget estimates and 77% of revised target, assuming 14% growth in nominal GDP as was projected in the Budget.

CAD widened to a record 5.4% of GDP in the second quarter of the current financial year, forcing a marginal draw down from the forex reserves.

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Yudhoyono Buffeted by Fuel as Indonesia Election Nears: Economy

yudhoyono-susilo-bambang_indonasian-presidentAccording to Bloomberg’s Sharon Chen and Novrida Manurung, Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is under growing pressure to raise fuel prices and curb oil imports as currency risks persist and the window to act narrows ahead of elections in 2014.

The government will probably need to increase subsidized- fuel prices this year, according to economists at Bank of America Corp., Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., Standard Chartered Plc, PT Bank Danamon Indonesia and Moody’s Analytics. The country limited the use of partially government- funded diesel last week and the trade minister said Yudhoyono will evaluate energy charges in the next few weeks.

The president has avoided raising fuel prices since protests derailed an increase early last year, highlighting the political minefields in a country where riots spurred by soaring living costs helped oust the dictator Suharto in 1998. Subsidies that keep charges below international market rates have bolstered demand for energy imports in the world’s fourth most- populous nation, contributing to a widening current-account gap and a 5.9 percent drop in the rupiah last year.

“This is a dilemma for the president,” said Fauzi Ichsan, a Jakarta-based senior economist at Standard Chartered and a former Finance Ministry analyst. “If the president raises fuel prices, it won’t be good politically, yet without an increase, the current-account deficit will remain high and the rupiah will continue to decline, adding imported inflation.”

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Institute predicts 8.4% China economic growth

CWSW-Bg-Panorama-Night (1)According to ChinaDaily, BeijingChina‘s economy will expand at 8.4 percent this year, up from the 7.8-percent growth rate of 2012, a research institute under the country’s top science academy has predicted.

China, the world’s second-largest economy, will see a mild pick-up in 2013 amid sluggish external demand, according to a report released on Saturday by the Center for Forecasting Science under the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Chen Xikang, deputy director of the center’s academic committee, said that difficulties still loom large over China‘s recovery process as investment and export take up too big a proportion of the economic structure and consumption still remains weak.

China‘s strict property curbs and economic restructuring will also affect the growth rebound, he added.

On a quarterly basis, the growth rate is expected to accelerate in the first and second quarter of 2013, and gradually draw back in the middle of the year before picking up again in the fourth quarter, the report said.

China‘s economy recorded 7.8 percent year-on-year growth last year, marking the first time that the annual increase dropped to less than 8 percent since 1999, according to data released on January 18 by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

“The growth rate did slow last year but still remains at normal levels, which will not change the basic development pattern of China‘s economy in the medium-to-long term,” said Zhu Baoliang, a researcher with the State Information Center, a government think-tank.

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Indonesia: IPOs ride economic growth

20120207171513093A flurry of initial public offerings (IPOs) planned for December and early 2013 highlight how firms in Indonesia are trying to harness bullish domestic and global confidence to fund plans for expansion.

Currently leading the pack is Indonesia AirAsia, whose planned IPO hopes to raise some Rp1.7trn ($175.78m) in early 2013. The aviation firm is closely followed by state-owned plantation firm Perkebunan Nusantara’s Rp1.5trn ($155.1m) listing, also scheduled for 2013, and state-run construction company Waskita Karya’s Rp1.2trn ($124.08m) December IPO.

The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) saw two IPOs in December, bringing the total number of listings for 2012 to 23. This is down on the 24 IPOs seen in 2011, but continues to underline international sentiment over the vast archipelago’s private equity prospects.

A survey conducted by private equity firm Coller Capital saw nascent Asian economies, such as Indonesia and Vietnam, favoured by one-fifth of investors over the more mature markets found in other Asian countries, including China and India.

Northstar Pacific Partners, a local partner of global investor TPG Capital, for example, raised $800m in 2011 to invest in Indonesian companies. Other large firms, such as Starwood Capital Group, are circling in search of deals, according to reports from the Wall Street Journal.

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Japan Economy Minister Urges Yen Caution

topics_yen_395According to The Wall Street Journal’s Mari Iwata, Tokyo—A top Japanese economic policy maker warned that a further sharp drop in the yen could harm the country’s economy, tempering the full-throated yen-weakening rhetoric of the new government that has successfully pushed the Japanese currency down more than 10% against the dollar in less than two months.

“The yen has come to a good level,” Economy Minister Akira Amari said in an interview Monday on Japan‘s TBS television station, the latest in a series of comments from cabinet members suggesting that officials are happy with an exchange rate of about ¥90 to the dollar—but not much weaker.

“If it falls further to the three-digit level, it would boost import prices, weighing on the everyday life of the nation,” Mr. Amari said, implying that officials may try to step on the brakes if markets seem to be pushing the dollar to the ¥100 level—a mark unseen since 2009.

The dollar traded in the 89-yen range in Asia markets Monday, flirting with the 90-yen level for the first time since June 2010. That is considerably stronger for the dollar—and weaker for the yen—than the 79-yen range it hit in mid-November.

The yen started weakening two months ago when general elections were called and polls forecast a victory for then-opposition leader Shinzo Abe. He based his campaign on calls for aggressive economic stimulus, and a weakening of the yen. Mr. Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party won a landslide victory in the mid-December ballot, and he and his aides have since pushed aggressively for policies seen as weakening the yen, from bigger government spending to more monetary easing from the Bank of Japan.

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China’s Economy: Enter or Exit the Dragon?

china-dragon-cloud-computingAccording to Callum Newman Of Money Morning,

On one side of the office, the bear.

On the other side, the bull.

Two analysts, same publishing company, two very different views on China’s economy. Their desks are probably no more than five metres apart.

Oh boy, this is going to be interesting.

One says the dragon is about to roar again and take commodities – and selected mining stocks – up with it. And that now’s your chance to buy in on a resources comeback after the market shakedown in 2012.

The other says the Chinese slowdown in 2012 will continue and the recent stock rally and the rebound in the iron ore price are false flags to suck in gullible investors, so watch out.

In today’s Money Weekend, we’ll explore the two sides of the great China debate happening right here in our St Kilda headquarters. Grab a cup of tea, lean forward, engage your brain, and see which of our top analysts you agree with…

The China Bull and the China Bear 

In the blue corner, you have Diggers & Drillers editor Dr. Alex Cowie. His message for investors?‘China bears are about to get smoked.’

In the red corner, Sound Money.Sound Investmentshttp://www.soundmoneysoundinvestments.com.au/ editor Greg Canavan says the current rebound firing up the Chinese economy in the past few months is from an unsustainable burst of credit…and that contraction is assured.

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Indian economy has done well with lower taxes: Praful Patel

According to The Economic Times,

praful_patelIn an interview with ET Now (Supriya Shrinate), Praful Patel, Heavy Industries Minister, shares his views on Indian economy, diesel price deregulation and taxes for the super rich. Excerpts:
What is your main focus area?

I think the main focus which we should be emphasising is on infrastructure. We have got to get the power sector right. We have to make sure that gets back on track because it has really cost us a lot of, I would say, goodwill. We have got to get the coal sector right. We got to get the power sector right, plus our other infrastructure sectors like roads.

You may not be the biggest but you are the most trusted UPA ally. How it has been for allies like you to standby some really tough decisions?

India is going to achieve a lot in the long run due to good, sound economic policies. At least as far the NCP is concerned, we have always been very rational and very supportive of the economic reforms.

India Inc, especially the auto sector, is very-very nervous. They believe taxes could be raised on diesel cars, that is an obvious conclusion people are drawing, I think demand will take a little bit of a hit because of diesel deregulation. How are you smoothening frayed nerves?

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Regional Graft Undermining Indonesian Economy, Democracy: Expert

Jakarta, IndonesiaAccording to Jakarta Globe’s Robertus Ward, The spread of corruption following the decentralization of power from Jakarta in the late 1990s is threatening to hold back Indonesia’s economic and democratic development, an expert has warned.

Ikrar Nusa Bhakti, a political analyst from the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), said on Thursday that the scale and breadth of corruption being practiced at the regional level had reached a point where foreign investment prospects were undermined and Indonesia’s regional and global competitiveness were at threat.

The problem, he said, was that when the central government devolved power to regional authorities following the fall of Suharto’s New Order regime in 1998, it failed to anticipate the potential for those officials to abuse their newly vested powers.

Ikrar said much of the corruption at the regional level was of the “bribe and kickback” variety and was most apparent in the run-up to regional elections.

“The candidates, whether the incumbent or the challengers, engage in corrupt practices during campaigning. They take money from donors, who in turn expect the favor to be returned in the form of project and procurement contracts,” he said, adding that the awarding of contracts to the winning candidate’s cronies was also a problem.

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India Seeks to Lift Inflows by Raising Debt Limit to $75 Billion

Indian-Prime-Minister-Manmohan-SinghAccording to Bloomberg’s V. Ramakrishnan & Jeanette Rodrigues, India took a step to spur capital inflows and avert a debt-rating downgrade by raising a limit on foreign investment in rupee bonds by $10 billion to $75 billion.

The nation boosted the cap on holdings of government debt yesterday to $25 billion from $20 billion while an ownership ceiling for corporate notes was increased to $50 billion from $45 billion, according to a statement on the Reserve Bank of India’s website. The rupee erased a 0.4 percent loss after the announcement. Bonds were little changed.

 Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has boosted efforts to revive Asia’s third-largest economy since mid-September, cutting fuel subsidies and opening up more industries to overseas investment, after Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings warned the nation’s investment-grade rating is at risk. The move to spur debt inflows comes after the rupee slid 3.9 percent last quarter as the current-account deficit widened to $22.4 billion.“This will help increase inflows to India in the short-and medium-term, especially as sentiment towards the economy has been improving,” said Siddharth Mathur, strategist at UBS AG in Singapore. “But this is just a single measure that may help at the margin. It isn’t a silver bullet. I wouldn’t overplay its significance as India’s structural current-account deficit needs structural solutions.”

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