Singapore Shows Surprising Growth in April

Singapore's economy took an unexpected turn higher in the first quarter of the year as a rally in financial markets buoyed the city-state's banking sector.

Singapore’s economy took an unexpected turn higher in the first quarter of the year.

Martin Vaughan from WSJ: Singapore’s economy took an unexpected turn higher in the first quarter of the year as a rally in financial markets buoyed the city-state’s banking sector.
Gross domestic product expanded 1.8% in the first quarter on a seasonally adjusted, annualized basis, an improvement from preliminary data that had indicated a 1.4% decline, the government said Thursday. Officials said they expect growth to pick up modestly for the remainder of the year on stronger external demand, but kept their full-year growth forecast at 1.0%-3.0%.

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China: Tough Challenges Ahead in Shift to Consumption-Driven Economy

China faces a difficult task of rebalancing the economy towards a consumption-driven model.

China faces a difficult task of rebalancing the economy towards a consumption-driven model.

Tom Orlik from WSJ reports that a more detailed look at China’s economic performance in 2012 shows it tipped further off balance, relying more than ever on credit-fueled investment, a trend it had tried to rein in.

A further tilt toward capital spending flies in the face of Beijing’s goals to shift to a consumption-driven economic model and threatens to add to a mounting debt problem, exacerbate industrial overcapacity that is dragging down profits, and produce more empty “ghost cities.”

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Indonesia’s Infrastructure Development is Deterred by Poor Planning

Infrastructure failings clip the wings of Indonesian airport  due to poor planning and communication

Infrastructure failings clip the wings of Indonesian airport due to poor planning and communication

Reported by Ben Bland from the Financial Times: that the state-of-the-art Rp5.2tn ($527m) Kuala Namu airport rises elegantly out of degraded plantation and swamp land 30km from the rapidly-expanding city of Medan, the biggest on the resource-rich island of Sumatra.

But because of the failure to build a planned toll road, Indonesia’s first world-class airport can only be reached by a tortuous route through narrow lanes that pass village after village, with schoolchildren cycling idly into the oncoming traffic and farmers drying rice by the road side.

“It’s a beautiful building in the middle of nowhere,” conceded Kuntoro Mangkusubroto, who is responsible for monitoring key infrastructure projects as the head of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s delivery unit, shaking his head mournfully. “There was no joined-up thinking on the toll road, airport and train system.”

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Bank of Japan to Maintain Quantitative Easing, Supporting Abenomics

Bank of Japan will continue with its bold quantitative easing policy and looks to double its monetary base over the next two years, citing improving economic conditions and showing support for Abenomics.

Bank of Japan will continue with its bold quantitative easing policy and looks to double its monetary base over the next two years.

Charles Riley reports from CNNMoney that Japan’s central bank pledged Wednesday to maintain its ambitious quantitative easing program, saying that economic conditions in the country are improving.

“Japan’s economy has started picking up,” the Bank of Japan said in a statement, citing improvement in exports, consumer spending and private investment.

The central bank announced in April that it would expand its balance sheet by purchasing longer-term debt and securities like ETFs. The bank also merged its asset-purchase programs and suspended a rule that prohibited the purchase of longer-term debt.

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Rising Wages may Pose a Dilemma for China

China's rising wages may improve consumer spending but will also hurt export competitiveness and business profitability

China’s rising wages may improve consumer spending but will also hurt export competitiveness and business profitability

Tom Orlik from WSJ reports that China is showing rapid increases in wages and signs of resilience in hiring despite slowing growth, a reassuring sign for leaders seeking to put more money in the pockets of ordinary Chinese, but a trend that could prove difficult to sustain as countries nearby threaten to encroach on China’s manufacturing dominance.

Chinese private-sector wages rose 14% in 2012, data showed Friday, good news overall for Beijing’s push to make consumer spending a more important part of growth. But higher labor costs also hurt business profitability and export competitiveness—which could pose its own risks to the economic recovery.

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US Ambassador Urges India to Open Economy for More Foreign Investments

First woman US Ambassador to India: Nancy J. Powell

First woman US Ambassador to India: Nancy J. Powell (Photo: Ranjeet Kumar)

According to the report from India Times, US Ambassador Nancy Powell on Tuesday called for greater economic opening and more foreign investments for India’s higher economic growth, saying “there is more yet to do” in the area of reforms to return to 10 per cent growth.

Washington’s first woman ambassador to India contended that it was high tariff and non-tariff barriers that were preventing American companies, among others, from “competing” in the country. “Currently, tariff and non-tariff barriers are too high, preventing India from obtaining the latest and best technology and the most advanced equipment it needs to meet its objectives,” Powell said.

 

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Japan’s New Optimism Has Name: Abenomics

Japan's new hope rests on Abenomics

Japan’s new optimism rests on Abenomics

Martin Fackler from NY Times reports that after years of grinding malaise, Japan suddenly has some of its bling back.

A humbled Sony — once a titan of Japan Inc. — recently sprang back into the black for the first year in five years, courtesy of a plunging yen. Honda, another corporate icon, triumphantly announced a return to Formula One racing, rejoining an exclusive club of high-performance carmakers after having slinked away when cash ran low.

Even some of Japan’s wary consumers are beginning to indulge. At the plush Takashimaya department store in Tokyo’s financial district, a clerk reported that $20,000 watches had become hot sellers. And a cut-rate sushi chain, which flourished in difficult times, just started a line of upscale restaurants for customers newly able to afford “petite extravagances.”

The reason for the exuberance? Early — and some say deceptive — signs that new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic shock therapy, called Abenomics, might just be working.

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India, China Agree to Take Steps to Address Trade Imbalance

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang address issue of trade imbalance

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang address issue of trade imbalance (RAVEENDRAN/AFP/Getty Images)

Economic Times | New Delhi: Targeting $ 100 billion in bilateral commerce by 2015, India and China today agreed to take steps for addressing the issue of trade imbalance through greater cooperation in areas like pharmaceutical and IT.

A joint statement issued after the meeting of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said: “While striving to realise the trade turnover target of $ 100 billion by 2015, the two countries agreed to take measures to address the issue of the trade imbalance. These include cooperation on pharmaceutical supervision including registration, stronger links between Chinese enterprises and Indian IT industry, and completion of phytosanitary negotiations on agro-products.”

While India’s export to China were only $ 13.52 billion in 2012-13, its imports from that country aggregated to $ 54.3 billion, leaving a trade deficit of $ 40.78 billion.

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Is the Indian economy stronger than commonly assumed?

images (5)“When the facts change, I change my mind,” said John Maynard Keynes. Will the revised data on gross domestic product (GDP) for 2010-11 make us do likewise?

For the revised GDP estimates issued last week question popular descriptions of India’s growth slowdown, challenge estimates of a lowered potential output and possibly shed some light on the inflation-growth disconnect in 2012. The improved data has been computed from the dependable Annual Survey of Industries (ASI) rather than the notorious Index of Industrial Production (IIP); it compels us to revisit these issues and raises policy setting concerns.
The facts: India’s GDP growth for 2010-11 stands reworked to 9.3% instead of the earlier estimate of 8.4%—nearly one percentage point higher. Much of this increase comes from revised manufacturing sector growth—9.7% year-on-year, or 2.1 percentage points more. What’s more, the increase in the estimated growth for 2010-11 is itself built upon a 1.6 point increase in growth during the previous year (now 11.3% for 2009-10).
On the demand side, it was the capital stock growth that contributed 4.2 percentage points to the 10.5% real GDP growth (at market prices). Gross fixed capital formation growth is now placed at 14% year-on-year, nearly double the earlier measure of 7.5%, and a substantial jump over the 7.7% growth in 2009-10; this acceleration lifted the real gross capital formation rate to 40% in 2010-11, from 38.4% the previous year. The other demand component that has been revised is public consumption: growth in actual government expenditure was a more modest 5.9% in 2010-11 against the 8.2% recorded earlier and a big drop from the 14% growth in 2009-10.
The new facts challenge some hypotheses about the collapse of the India growth story. For one, the “policy paralysis” explanation that throttled investments and exacerbated supply constraints from 2010 weakens in the light of robust manufacturing growth and capacity creation in 2010-11. This may explain the sudden, sharp drop in growth to 6.2% in 2011-12, when scams emerged to dent business confidence, but not before.

Japan central bank moves to boost economy

r-JAPAN-STOCK-MARKET-large570According to Al Jazeera News, Japan’s central bank has taken its boldest action yet to lift the country’s struggling economy.

The Bank of Japan on Tuesday doubled its inflation target and took on an open-ended commitment to buy assets.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government has been pushing for a plan to kick-start Japan‘s economy, which is the third largest in the world.

He is hoping to spur growth in his second term in office, through heavy government spending on public works and other projects.

Jeff Kingston, the director of Asian Studies at Temple University in Tokyo, told Al Jazeera that this time around, Abe was focusing on the economy.

“Everyone is worried about his ideological objectives, but it looks like he is putting that aside and focusing on the economy,” Kingston said.

The Bank of Japan adopted the two percent inflation target demanded by the country’s new government.

“The bank sets the ‘price stability target’ at two percent in terms of the year-on-year rate of change in the consumer price index,” the bank said in a statement.

“The Bank will pursue aggressive monetary easing … through a virtually zero interest rate policy and purchases of financial assets,” it added.

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