A New Numerology for Predicting China’s Economy

The dreaded number "four" in Chinese Culture may be involved in predicting China's economic cycle

The dreaded number “four” in Chinese Culture may be involved in predicting China’s economic cycle

Robert Silk from WSJ: The number “four” is unlucky in China. It sounds a little bit like “death,” and nobody wants it in their phone number.

But one economist at Peking University, one of the country’s top academic institutions, is convinced traditional numerology has got it wrong.

“What are the boom years in the Chinese economy?” asked Cai Hongbin at a Thursday morning press conference. “Eighty-three and ’84, ’93 and ’94, 2003 and 2004.”

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Singapore Shows Surprising Growth in April

Singapore's economy took an unexpected turn higher in the first quarter of the year as a rally in financial markets buoyed the city-state's banking sector.

Singapore’s economy took an unexpected turn higher in the first quarter of the year.

Martin Vaughan from WSJ: Singapore’s economy took an unexpected turn higher in the first quarter of the year as a rally in financial markets buoyed the city-state’s banking sector.
Gross domestic product expanded 1.8% in the first quarter on a seasonally adjusted, annualized basis, an improvement from preliminary data that had indicated a 1.4% decline, the government said Thursday. Officials said they expect growth to pick up modestly for the remainder of the year on stronger external demand, but kept their full-year growth forecast at 1.0%-3.0%.

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China: Tough Challenges Ahead in Shift to Consumption-Driven Economy

China faces a difficult task of rebalancing the economy towards a consumption-driven model.

China faces a difficult task of rebalancing the economy towards a consumption-driven model.

Tom Orlik from WSJ reports that a more detailed look at China’s economic performance in 2012 shows it tipped further off balance, relying more than ever on credit-fueled investment, a trend it had tried to rein in.

A further tilt toward capital spending flies in the face of Beijing’s goals to shift to a consumption-driven economic model and threatens to add to a mounting debt problem, exacerbate industrial overcapacity that is dragging down profits, and produce more empty “ghost cities.”

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Japanese Stocks Plunge 7% on Weak Data and Higher Yield

Japanese stocks plunge on weak China data, higher yield, and stronger yen.

Japanese stocks plunge on weak China data, higher yield, and stronger yen.

Anna Kitanaka from Bloomberg reports that Japan’s Topix index tumbled almost 7 percent, the most since the aftermath of the March 2011 tsunami and nuclear disaster, as financial firms slid amid rising bond yields. Nikkei 225 (NKY) Stock Average futures traded in Osaka and Singapore fell in after-hours trade, signaling further declines.

Every company in the Nikkei 225 (NKY) retreated for the first time since April 2005. Consumer lenders lost 11 percent to lead declines among the Topix’s 33 industry groups. Mitsubishi Estate Co., the country’s biggest developer, slid 9.3 percent. Mitsubishi Motor Corp. dropped 14 percent, falling a second day after advancing more than 50 percent in the previous three days. Tokyo Electric Power Co. plunged 13 percent.

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Indonesia’s Infrastructure Development is Deterred by Poor Planning

Infrastructure failings clip the wings of Indonesian airport  due to poor planning and communication

Infrastructure failings clip the wings of Indonesian airport due to poor planning and communication

Reported by Ben Bland from the Financial Times: that the state-of-the-art Rp5.2tn ($527m) Kuala Namu airport rises elegantly out of degraded plantation and swamp land 30km from the rapidly-expanding city of Medan, the biggest on the resource-rich island of Sumatra.

But because of the failure to build a planned toll road, Indonesia’s first world-class airport can only be reached by a tortuous route through narrow lanes that pass village after village, with schoolchildren cycling idly into the oncoming traffic and farmers drying rice by the road side.

“It’s a beautiful building in the middle of nowhere,” conceded Kuntoro Mangkusubroto, who is responsible for monitoring key infrastructure projects as the head of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s delivery unit, shaking his head mournfully. “There was no joined-up thinking on the toll road, airport and train system.”

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Bank of Japan to Maintain Quantitative Easing, Supporting Abenomics

Bank of Japan will continue with its bold quantitative easing policy and looks to double its monetary base over the next two years, citing improving economic conditions and showing support for Abenomics.

Bank of Japan will continue with its bold quantitative easing policy and looks to double its monetary base over the next two years.

Charles Riley reports from CNNMoney that Japan’s central bank pledged Wednesday to maintain its ambitious quantitative easing program, saying that economic conditions in the country are improving.

“Japan’s economy has started picking up,” the Bank of Japan said in a statement, citing improvement in exports, consumer spending and private investment.

The central bank announced in April that it would expand its balance sheet by purchasing longer-term debt and securities like ETFs. The bank also merged its asset-purchase programs and suspended a rule that prohibited the purchase of longer-term debt.

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US and China to Skip Diplomatic Pomp in Summit Next Month

China President Xi JinPing and US President Barack Obama will meet in "no ties, shirt-sleeves" Presidential Summit to focus more on substantive issues.

China President Xi JinPing and US President Barack Obama will meet in “no ties, shirt-sleeves” Presidential Summit to focus more on substantive issues.

Brian Spegele from WSJ reports that a planned U.S.-China presidential summit in California next month will afford the two countries’ leaders a chance to shed their neckties and build personal rapport, just as a renewed U.S. military focus on Asia and U.S. accusations of Chinese cyberespionage have strained relations.

Two days of meetings between President Barack Obama and newly installed Chinese President Xi Jinping will be notable for the absence of the diplomatic pomp that typically accompanies a Chinese leader’s visit to the U.S.

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Rising Wages may Pose a Dilemma for China

China's rising wages may improve consumer spending but will also hurt export competitiveness and business profitability

China’s rising wages may improve consumer spending but will also hurt export competitiveness and business profitability

Tom Orlik from WSJ reports that China is showing rapid increases in wages and signs of resilience in hiring despite slowing growth, a reassuring sign for leaders seeking to put more money in the pockets of ordinary Chinese, but a trend that could prove difficult to sustain as countries nearby threaten to encroach on China’s manufacturing dominance.

Chinese private-sector wages rose 14% in 2012, data showed Friday, good news overall for Beijing’s push to make consumer spending a more important part of growth. But higher labor costs also hurt business profitability and export competitiveness—which could pose its own risks to the economic recovery.

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US Ambassador Urges India to Open Economy for More Foreign Investments

First woman US Ambassador to India: Nancy J. Powell

First woman US Ambassador to India: Nancy J. Powell (Photo: Ranjeet Kumar)

According to the report from India Times, US Ambassador Nancy Powell on Tuesday called for greater economic opening and more foreign investments for India’s higher economic growth, saying “there is more yet to do” in the area of reforms to return to 10 per cent growth.

Washington’s first woman ambassador to India contended that it was high tariff and non-tariff barriers that were preventing American companies, among others, from “competing” in the country. “Currently, tariff and non-tariff barriers are too high, preventing India from obtaining the latest and best technology and the most advanced equipment it needs to meet its objectives,” Powell said.

 

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Japan’s New Optimism Has Name: Abenomics

Japan's new hope rests on Abenomics

Japan’s new optimism rests on Abenomics

Martin Fackler from NY Times reports that after years of grinding malaise, Japan suddenly has some of its bling back.

A humbled Sony — once a titan of Japan Inc. — recently sprang back into the black for the first year in five years, courtesy of a plunging yen. Honda, another corporate icon, triumphantly announced a return to Formula One racing, rejoining an exclusive club of high-performance carmakers after having slinked away when cash ran low.

Even some of Japan’s wary consumers are beginning to indulge. At the plush Takashimaya department store in Tokyo’s financial district, a clerk reported that $20,000 watches had become hot sellers. And a cut-rate sushi chain, which flourished in difficult times, just started a line of upscale restaurants for customers newly able to afford “petite extravagances.”

The reason for the exuberance? Early — and some say deceptive — signs that new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic shock therapy, called Abenomics, might just be working.

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